2018
was a year that Chicago lost more than it gained in almost every area:
population, revenue, (other than taxes), the continued erosion of confidence in
public officials, dents in public education, and personal safety.
First,
and foremost, was the startling news, in September, that Mayor Rahm Emanuel was
not going to run for reelection, seemingly, because he saw the writing on the
wall, and it was not a good script: the political fallout after the Laquan McDonald
shooting, and the infamous police videotape that critics said he suppressed, with
the help of former states Attorney, Anita Alvarez, until a judge ordered its
release; and, all ending with a tattered reputation, and a loss of confidence,
from many residents, especially from African Americans, who have repeatedly
called for his resignation.
With
the trial verdict pending of McDonald’s shooter, Jason Van Dyke, the city was
tense and relentless, and there were calls from activists, nation wide, to come
to Chicago, in a show of defiance and solidarity, and many expected violence.
In
sum, perhaps, and fearing the spectacle of street rioting, and noisy
demonstrations, filling the national media, Emanuel bade his adieu, and still others,
without evidence, saying that his former boss Barack Obama advised him to do
so.
Emanuel
was taking heat on many sides, but also for becoming Version 2.0 of the Daley
mayors, both father and son, replete with an ironclad will, and a rubber stamp
city council. And, adding to the list of
complaints, for his critics, was that he was holding fast to Tax Increment Financing
monies,
as a slush fund, as his predecessors had done.
Going
even further, there was a feeding frenzy, when private emails of Emanuel were
released, after a lawsuit by the Better Government
Association and reported by a Chicago Tribune
investigative report, and the Chicago Sun-Times, as evidence of influence peddling.
Here they all come
Emanuel’s decision, not to seek reelection, opened a
floodgate of mayoral candidates, mostly familiar names to any Chicagoan,
including Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, state Comptroller
Susana Mendoza, ex police chief Garry McCarthy and some old school names, such
as Paul Vallas and Gary Chico, plus Cook County Commissioner Bridget Gainer,
who later dropped out.
City
cynics have labelled them as beholding to the machine, while stating that they
have no ties to established politicians, such as Ed Burke and notably after the
Fed raid of his city hall and ward offices there were predictions, by some,
that he would skate away unscathed, with
others saying, it was a move, by the Feds, to clean up our city’s legendary
corruption.
But
many of the above mentioned candidates had long-term ties to him, and all were
noticeably quiet, after the event, except, Lori Lightfoot, who gave it to the
press, straight, when she said: “It
seems all these other folks are running for cover and don’t want to talk about
him, but frankly, that underscores the fact that we’ve got different factions
of the political machine manifested in Mendoza, Preckwinkle, [Bill] Daley and
Chico and others who don’t want to rock the boat because they are very much
wedded to the status quo.”
Preckwinkle
through her spokesperson said that she did not know Burke, yet the Trib,
revealed that Burke had thrown a recent fundraiser for her at this South Side
home, a move that Tribune columnist Kristen McQueary called in a recent Op-ed
piece, an “anointment.”
As
to be expected, once the candidates amassed the required 25,000 ballot
signatures came charges, and counter charges, of fraudulent and questionable
signatures, with Preckwinkle leading the pack, only to later back down, as the
designated, some say, self-designated, front runner.
Notably,
in a race featuring prominent women, the back and forth among them seemed to be
bad form, but the fight was on, and the battle not yet won but “Lightfoot
called the move a win for the democratic process, and predicted Preckwinkle’s
attempts to knock candidates out of the race will backfire with Chicago voters
by showing her to be “a party boss” rather than a progressive, reported the Tribune.
“What
it’s done, I think, is give me an opportunity to demonstrate to people all over
the city that the Toni Preckwinkle they may have been nostalgic for, that
presented herself back in the day as a reformer, is gone,” Lightfoot said
outside the hearing room in the basement of the George W. Dunne Cook County
Office Building downtown.
Shots
were also fired, from Preckwinkle, to Mendoza, even after she ended the
challenge to her signatures, saying through a spokesperson, that the latter was
ill-prepared for the challenges of the mayoral office.
Issuing
a Parthian shot, Mendoza shot back via her campaign manager, Nicole DeMont,
framing the challenge as yet another machine political tactic:
“Despite
what boss Preckwinkle hoped, there will be an election and voters will hold her
accountable for her record of raising taxes first and providing transparency
last,” DeMont said, and added, that “Her political games are exactly why
Chicago needs a mayor focused on the next generation, instead of just the next
four years.”
Taking some heat after news of the fundraiser and Burke’s appearance at Mandoza's wedding reception, they both decided to not spend, monies given to them by Burke, and instead donated them to nonprofits, and the families of fallen police officers, but, for many, the damage was done.
Taking some heat after news of the fundraiser and Burke’s appearance at Mandoza's wedding reception, they both decided to not spend, monies given to them by Burke, and instead donated them to nonprofits, and the families of fallen police officers, but, for many, the damage was done.
Still crying broke, Chicago is
singing the pension blues
Not
to be outdone, by any one person, or events, was the dark cloud of city
finances, notably pension obligations for firefighters and police, and the
decision of Emanuel not to float a 10 billion bond, or did he?
When
the idea became news, his critics accused him of kicking the can down the road,
for his successor to deal with. But later there were rumors, to maybe adopt it,
or at least, some of it, only to not entirely disown it, and then later to
maybe keep it.
“Chicago's
four pension systems are about $28 billion short of promised benefits,
prompting Emanuel's financial team to consider a risky fix: borrowing more than
$10 billion by issuing bonds to help lower that debt.”
Crain’s
Chicago, then shared an article from Bloomberg Financial
News,
on its website, who said it is “a well tried tactic, and one that has met with
success, according to a 2014 study by the Center for Retirement Research at
Boston College, which found that governments on the whole came out ahead by
doing so. But there’s a big caveat: Those that sold so-called pension
obligation bonds after the dot-com and housing bubbles found themselves deeper
in the hole when stock prices collapsed.”
Considering
the volatility of the bullish market, it seems like a risky proposition, and
"Historically, the timing of pension obligation bonds to seize the right
window has played out fairly poorly," said Dora Lee, vice president at
Belle Haven Investments. "Right now, going into 2019 and 2020, it doesn’t
look like you’ll have the stock market that will be able to generate the
returns necessary to make it economically feasible."
Crime lessens, then increases, but
still higher than in other major cities
Crime,
a major problem, for many years, in Chicago, has the good news of an abatement:
4th quarter results from the Pew Research Center, based on FBI reports showed,
1,900, and the label of “murder capital”, on a per capita basis, cannot be hung
around the neck of Chicago, with Baltimore leading, followed by St. Louis.
Chicago,
according to early data, showed a crime drop to 18.1
percent, and the Chicago Sun-Times reported in September that “Chicago saw 765
murders in 2016, the most in two decades. In 2017 that number dropped to 653 —
a rate of about 24 murders for every 100,000 residents. That’s a drop in the
city’s murder rate of 14.6 percent, outpacing the 1.5 percent drop nationwide.”
Among
cities of comparable size the reduction in New York was the most dramatic, and
“Even if 2018 [Chicago] comes in at a 25 percent reduction by the end of the
year, that gets us back to roughly where we were in 2015, before the spike
happened,” said Max Kapustin, the research director at the University of
Chicago Crime Lab. “Which is a vast improvement, but still very far from a city
like New York or Los Angeles, which is, I think, where Chicago ought to be,” he
said in a Chicago Sun-Times interview.
“The
292 murders that took place in the Big Apple in 2017 were down from a peak of
2,245 in 1990. In fact, New York’s murder rate – 3.4 homicides per 100,000
people – is now below the national average,” noted Pews.
An
exception is the recent surge in robberies in
the Loop, the city’s business district, which has seen a dramatic rise in
robberies, even in broad daylight, with cell phone thefts being most
prominent. There were 86 robberies
there, the highest in the first quarter in 15 years, compared with 49 in 2017,
and 52 in 2016.
In
rapidly gentrifying Edgewater, a neighborhood on the city’s far North Side, a
popular Thai restaurant, on Bryn Mawr, had a plate glass window broken, in the small hours of the morning, and according to the manager, “they stole
everything,” prompting other area restaurants to post signs, in their windows,
up and down the street, and its intersecting street of Broadway, stating that
no cash is kept on the premise, after closing.
Our
emailed inquiry to the aldermanic office of Harry Osterman received a tardy,
and lukewarm response; surprising, considering the increasingly high
residential and commercial rents, not to mention the new construction,
featuring two residential high rises.
The
city’s iconic El trains have also seen an increased spate of robberies, about
40 per week on the Red Line, according to one area detective we spoke with;
and, some are attributing it to the holiday season, plus the usual
pickpocketing, that we observed this summer, first hand, as attendees boarded
the Red Line, after a country and music concert.
Adding
further to CTA passenger concerns, there has been more than one shooting, one
during rush hour, and one just before; with the former occurring in a
connecting tunnel, between the Blue and Red Lines; one that is used by many travelers
to and from O’ Hare airport.
A
recent train robber was apprehended, by one quick footed policeman, and the
cell phone returned to its owner, giving some residents a sense of relief. CPD
has also announced that in addition to the annual New Year’s Eve stop points
for drunken drivers, they will be a visible preference on the CTA trains.
Some residents have had enough and
are leaving town
Population
erosion continued even further from 2017, and one source, cites that, on the
average there were 156 people that left the Windy City; some for even the even
colder climate of Minnesota, a fact, claimed one report, to gain better, and
more consistent employment, and safety.
“Chicago’s black
population has declined every year since at least 2005, something researchers believe has to do with housing, a perception
that there are more opportunities elsewhere and safety, said the Minneapolis Post,
in an economic report on its website, earlier this month.
Chicago
is also losing its white population, especially those that are low and middle
income, accompanied by working professionals with at least an associate’s
degree seeking, like their black counterparts, safety, and greater job
opportunities.
According
to U.S. Census estimates, Greater Chicago lost more than 13,000 people between
2016 and 2017.
“That’s not a huge share of the population of the metro area of 9.5 million, but it does represent the third year of declines, and it comes at a time when most big U.S. metros are seeing their populations grow. Chicago is the only one of the 10 biggest U.S. metro areas to have seen population loss between 2016 and 2017.”
“That’s not a huge share of the population of the metro area of 9.5 million, but it does represent the third year of declines, and it comes at a time when most big U.S. metros are seeing their populations grow. Chicago is the only one of the 10 biggest U.S. metro areas to have seen population loss between 2016 and 2017.”
We noted two years ago that, ”While the amount lost
was smaller - in thousands compared to millions of residents - “The City of
Chicago itself lost 6,263 residents. Nevertheless, the Chicago Tribune notes
that this is the first decline in population for the city since 1990.
“By almost every metric, Illinois' population is
sharply declining, largely because residents are fleeing the state,” and the
Tribune surveyed dozens of former residents who've left within the last five
years, and each offered their own list of reasons for doing so. Common reasons
include high taxes, the state budget stalemate, crime, the unemployment rate
and the weather.
Certain
demographics now stand out: a greater loss of those aged 35 to 49, with a
corresponding decrease in families, and those 19 years old, and lower,
suggesting that careers will be forged elsewhere.
For
many, the bottom line may be the lack of affordable housing, a fact that many
residents are struggling with, especially older residents.
MinnPost
noted that “Significantly more Chicagoland residents are spending a bigger
share of their paycheck on housing than are Minneapolis-St. Paul residents,
according to a report from the Harvard Joint Center
for Housing Studies.
In Chicago, 50 percent of renters are cost-burdened — defined as paying more than 30 percent of their income on housing costs — 28 percent of them severely, which means they spend more than 50 percent of their income on housing. In Minneapolis, 46 percent of renters are cost-burdened, 23 percent of them severely. When it comes to home ownership, 28 percent of Chicago homeowners are cost-burdened, 12 percent severely, while 20 percent of Minneapolis-St. Paul homeowners are cost-burdened, 8 percent severely.”
In Chicago, 50 percent of renters are cost-burdened — defined as paying more than 30 percent of their income on housing costs — 28 percent of them severely, which means they spend more than 50 percent of their income on housing. In Minneapolis, 46 percent of renters are cost-burdened, 23 percent of them severely. When it comes to home ownership, 28 percent of Chicago homeowners are cost-burdened, 12 percent severely, while 20 percent of Minneapolis-St. Paul homeowners are cost-burdened, 8 percent severely.”
Challenges to Education: not making
the grade
Chicago
Public Schools took a drum beating with credible accusations of sexual abuse of
students, and the continued opening of schools in gentrified areas, while
schools in some black neighborhoods are slated to close, even after the 2013
closings of over 50, by Emanuel, and with decreased enrollment, overall in the
classroom.
While
plans to close a popular elementary school, the National Teachers Academy, and
reopen it as a high school, was met fierce opposition by parents, and a judge’s order
later prevented it.
The
move, say observers, was so that white parents in the area, (near South
Michigan Avenue), would not have to send their teens to the black High School
in Bronzeville, the heart of a once vibrant African American neighborhood; once
again showing the sharp intersection between race, class, and political power
in Chicago.
Chicago’s
charter school teachers were the first to strike, and while it was short lived,
it was enough to make headlines and cause tempers to flare, in a hotly debated
discussion of which was better for students, and teachers; most of whom were
lacking salary parity, with their CPS peers, while administrators and
executives were earning six figure incomes.
Having
sat under a cloud, CPS now has a budget,
it says is the most stable in
years
with increased money for universal pre-K education, with an approval for $6
billion, and an operating budget of $285 million.
Concerns
remain about hiring enough special education teachers and social workers to
meet the legal requirements, and many parents continue to have long standing
concerns, if these can be met.
CPS
said it carried $8.2 billion in long-term debt as of June 30. But, not so fast,
say some, and “those debts will increase in order to finance Mayor Rahm
Emanuel’s election-year proposal to take on a $989 million infrastructure
spending plan that has been met with growing complaints about inequitable
distribution,” Crain's Chicago said.
“The district says much of that money will come from new long-term debt, a strategy that provoked concerns from the Civic Federation budget watchdog organization.
The group endorsed the overall CPS spending plan — but worried about the district’s growing expenses in the face of dwindling enrollment and continued uncertainty over state government’s ability to keep promises to better fund education and grapple with its own financial problems,” reported the Tribune.
“With CPS’ finances just barely having reached more stable footing, the Civic Federation does not believe this is the right time to be issuing massive amounts of additional debt with only a portion going to the District’s most critical facility needs,” the watchdog group said in its annual assessment of the district’s budget.”
“The district says much of that money will come from new long-term debt, a strategy that provoked concerns from the Civic Federation budget watchdog organization.
The group endorsed the overall CPS spending plan — but worried about the district’s growing expenses in the face of dwindling enrollment and continued uncertainty over state government’s ability to keep promises to better fund education and grapple with its own financial problems,” reported the Tribune.
“With CPS’ finances just barely having reached more stable footing, the Civic Federation does not believe this is the right time to be issuing massive amounts of additional debt with only a portion going to the District’s most critical facility needs,” the watchdog group said in its annual assessment of the district’s budget.”
Goodbye Sears
Saying
goodbye is hard, and even harder when the iconic Sears is leaving town, and its
ill-fated marriage to K-Mart has hit the skids after the former filed for
Chapter 11, and the iconic brand, the Amazon of its day, made some bad
decisions, under the direction of CEO Eddie Lampert, who had no previous retail
experience, and now says, Sears will come back; with few believing him.
The
Economist notes that its stock market value fell from $30 billion dollars in
2007, to $69 million in mid-October of this year.
Such
hemorrhaging was accompanied by the sale of the legendary Craftsman brand, and
now we hear that in a $4.4 billion bid, Lampert wants to rescue the ailing
retailer, who has been hit by options form online retailer, the demise of
department stores, and of course,
Amazon.
An
amazing year of losses, except the good news: The Chicago Bears are going to
the playoffs.