A recent poll by Chicago based Victory Research dived into the details of support for both candidates showing the tight race with 44.9 percent for Vallas and 39.1 for Johnson, with 16 percent undecided. But, that also shows some telling endorsements with Ald. Ray Lopez of the 15th ward supporting Vallas (true to his tough on crime stance) and Matt O’Shea of the 19th for Vallas; indeed, the Irish American community with the long reign of Richard Daley and his son, is seemingly bent on seeing their support for traditions of old, represented by Vallas, even if he is Greek American.
With the election of 35 elected police district council people, they have taken the other side of the coin, from middle and lower income communities and thrown unanimous support to Johnson, showing their suspicion of the Vallas trope, and his support from some right wing figures such as the Fraternal Order of Police Lodge 7 president, John Cantanzarra.
Johnson has fought back against charges that he wants to defund the police, a tag hung nationally on Democrats, and talked about taking a holistic approach to examining the root causes of crime, be it housing, employment, and the like.
Taking an even closer look the poll revealed that 58.4 percent of progressives have shown support for Johnson, favoring that progressive approach to crime fighting, but in sharp contrast to those smaller numbers, from the same group for Vallas, 21.92 percent.
Along racial lines African Americans polled 63 percent for Johnson and 29 for Vallas, along with 61 percent for Vallas among whites, with about an even division among Latinos, who have shown low historical turnouts in previous races.
Geographically, Vallas dominates on the Northwest and Southwest sides of the city and Johnson on the South and West Sides, along ethnic and racial lines. And, for age demographic, Vallas captured more than 15 percent of voters over 60 years old, and Johnson in the 30s, 40s and 50s.
This past week has shown the two candidates crisscrossing the city in a series of forums, and debates, beginning with last Saturdays candidate forum by Chicago Women Take Action Alliance, and moderated by Cheryl Corley of NPR and local progressive radio WCPT host Joan Esposito, where both gave some contrasting responses to hot button issues, and showed what political consultant, and advisor to former president Barack Obama, Dave Axelrod called Johnson’s “big personality”, and, as he gave strong answers with statistics, it showed a relatively weakened Vallas who stood on his “law and order stance” and while he hit some punch lines, he never seemed to drill down the way Johnson did.
To wit: “The city is in crisis, [with] a degraded demoralized police department, the problem is on the 5th floor [of city hall], seemingly forgetting that Lightfoot was defeated,and while this might appeal to the Lightfoot haters, it seems to have been a tag line from an earlier speech, and not one pertinent to the current situation.
Contrast this with Johnson who said that he had a “dynamic interest in this city’s history” and that “we need to build a stronger and safer one.”
To which Vallas countered that with the “problems of the city, [we have to] build something better and brighter.”
It’s apparent to many that for Chicago, and other cities of comparable size, that public safety and education, quality education, are paramount, and with the backing of both the FOP and the Chicago Teachers Union, for both Vallas and Johnson these are front burner issues for voters, and the community at large.
Vallas has called for increasing police as a seeming mandate, and to also recall retired officers to stem the tide of those who have retired, or moved to other states, but Johnson countered that the plan was unworkable since it would take time for both to get up to speed, at least two years, by his research.
Vallas also wants the return of beat cops to neighborhood patrols, something that our research has shown to be given a mixed reaction by residents, thinking that the old model had shortcomings, and that a return to the “officer friendly” model for aging baby boomers may have had its day.
In another forum at the University of Illinois at Chicago, organized by some anti violence groups on Tuesday Vallas again called for “community based policing” perhaps a nod to beat cops, but Johnson has said, accurately, that police officers cannot do it all, and that there is a role for social workers counselors, and the like, because to not do otherwise is a “recipe for disaster.”
At both forums Johnson had to clarify earlier remarks from a 2020 radio interview that defunding the police as an “actual, real, political goal,” not just a slogan as The Chicago Sun Times reported, and he replied at UIC that “it was a political goal, I never said it was mine.”
In an awkward moment for Vallas at UIC, he was questioned by former Chicago Tribune columnist, Eric Zorn by what he meant by “take the handcuffs off police” and that it might provoke some resident anger, and legal issues for the city.
Vallas said that his statement was a mischaracterization, and that “the bottom line is I have talked about restoring proactive policing that is consistent with the consent decree, and I’ve said that over and over again.”
He later backtracked to reiterate that proactive policing to meet the demands of the consent decree was what has consistently wanted but, as any trial lawyer knows what the jury heard, even if overruled, they heard, and the fact check was what forum listeners heard.
A later fact check revealed that he had actually told the Sun Times that, “police officers we do have are demoralized and handcuffed. There is no incentive to engage in proactive policing. And the criminals know it, and they’ve become bolder. There is an utter breakdown of law and order.”
He also ridiculed Johnson’s goal of hiring 200 detectives to aid police to solve crime, and that it’s “not going to solve the problem of crime in Chicago.” Johnson replied, “So, having detectives to solve crime doesn’t solve crime in Chicago.”
They also heard Vallas say that if elected he would go beyond getting back to pre covid murders as progress, but instead, “if I don’t get us under 500 murders a year, then I will have been a failure [as mayor].”
Chicago had 695 homicides in 2022 and 804 in 2021, according to CPD, “up sharply from 500 in 2019 before the COVID 19 pandemic,” reported Block Club Chicago.
Rounding out the week was Thursday’s televised debate on local ABC affiliate, where the Sun TImes reported Vallas took the gloves off in an often spirited debate, perhaps because the of the latest Johnson endorsements: Chuy Garcia, his earlier rival, Illinois Attorney General, Kwame Raoul, and on the national level, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, of Massachusetts, and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and On Friday, longtime civil rights leader, The Rev. Jesse L. Jackson, Sr.
Right out of the gate, Vallas, once again, told Johnson he wanted to defund the police, and Johnson defended his record saying that was a political goal and not his own.
On stronger ground with a return volley, he added that 40 percent of all 911 calls are related to mental health, and that the police are “asked to do their job, and somebody else,”
He had earlier noted, at the CWTA forum, that “200 calls each night” are for women suffering domestic violence.
Called smart policing, Johnson has used this fact, to which Vallas has said, “smart policing is not defunding the police,” but at this point it seemed like a shopworn line, and the expression on Johnson’s face seemed to reveal the same feeling.
In a retort, he noted that it takes two years to train police and put them on the streets, and that “we need police now.”
Vallas met that by saying that it would only take 6 months, incredulous to many viewers, and that it, seemingly “would improve morale,and that police officers will return, and can be counter on, and not be punished when they make arrests.”
Sometimes all roads in local politics, as well as national come down to money, and Johnson stated that he was the only one on the stage who had a budget, but Vallas accused him of wanting to raise property taxes to $800 million, and that the tax on hotels and motels was unfair to which Johnson replied he was looking at a dollar a room, and that even his own frugal father could come up with a dollar.
Vallas did mention, accurately enough, that Tax Increment Financing monies should be used to improve lower income neighborhoods such as Little Village, and while true enough, as was their intent, the financial distribution, has often been used to prop up high income venues, such as the French Market, hardly in an impoverished area.
Helping in those areas, and beyond is his support for Bring Chicago Home, a proposal to raise the real estate transfer tax to increase affordable housing and to end homelessness in the city, which Johnson said was a population of “20,000 unhoused people.”
Vallas touted his budget record in Chicago schools, as well as that in New Orleans and Philadelphia, but the appearance of New Orleans and Philadelphia officials, and a spate of reports and articles belie that claim. One of them, ACRE Action Center stated that when he was CEO at CPS, he “started a pattern of skipping pension payments, which ultimately led the Chicago Teachers Pension Fund to go from being fully funded to having a $9.6 billion shortfall.”
For Philadelphia, the report stated that the Vallas leadership “took out a series of toxic swap deals, which ultimately cost Philadelphia Taxpayers more than $161 million.”
Chicago has the nation’s third largest school system, and one of the major issues for both candidates, and for previous mayors, is how to harness the best financing for each student and to keep the quality high, and support needed wrap-around services such as tutors, librarians and social workers.
As the system has changed over the last few decades, with control given to the mayor, the school population is now mostly Black and brown, and much of the will to improve is compromised by race.
The funding formula is mostly dependent on property taxes, and while the formula has changed, the needs and costs have increased. Vallas has often said that he wants the money pushed down, his term, “to the school level”, but has been vague on how to do this. And, as the records have proved in both New Orleans and Philadelphia, most of his success was done with charter schools, at least for a while, and he has, in some older interviews suggested that he is a supporter of school choice, read as vouchers, something critics say whose ultimate goal is to destroy the American public school system.
Even more damaging is his alignment with the Illinois Federation for Children PAC, and a $59, 385 contribution from former Trump Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, a staunch advocate of school choice, and vouchers, and as American Federation of Teachers President Randi Weingarten, a Johnson supporter has said, “I don’t care what he [Vallas] says, for Betsy DeVos and her PAC to come in and support Paul Vallas tells you everything you need to know about him.”
In a subsequent debate with WBEZ radio Vallas denied having any contact with DeVos, yet the two did serve together as host s at at an event in conjunction with the Urban League of Chicago honoring the superintendent of Chicago Catholic schools.reported the Network of Public Education.
Johnson has direct classroom experience as a teacher, and this lived experience gives him more credibility in the eyes of many voters and his design for a more holistic approach for funding and accessibility.
For many progressives, Vallas’s statements to the right-leaning, Wirepoints, during a podcast in November of 2021, appears not only insensitive to the hot button subject of Critical Race Theory, which is not taught in elementary or high schools, and also racist. Here are excerpts:
“Critical Race Theory - or call it whatever you want, woke-ism, anti-racism . . .nut number one, when it distracts from quality instruction in the core subject areas - which it is, because we seem to be too preoccupied, too much focusing on these things, rather than focus on a core curriculum - our standards suffer and damage is done.”
Vallas also states that CRT, “further undermines the relationship of children with their parents.” And, when the host of the podcast attempts to link CRT with criminal behavior, Vallas says, “You’re absolutely right,” and that it’s “a justification for everything.”
Stay tuned.
Updated April 4, 2023 at 1:15 CDT
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